International Data Corporation (IDC) yesterday issued a press release announcing that according to its research, Google’s Android will ‘reach its peak as the best mobile phone OS’. Sure enough, analysts have compared lots of data and may present either accurate or exaggerated data but the point is, they cannot actually tell what will be happening in about four to five years from now. Like everyone else, they can only speculate.
According to the press release, Android will top at 61% market share in 2012 but may drop down to 52.9% by 2016. However, despite this, chances are that the number of shipments in 2013 will surpass 2012 shipments and even if Android’s share drops to 52.9%, they will still ship a larger number of phones compared to 2012 because the total number of smartphones in 2016 will be greater than 2012.
The research shows that iOS’s market share in 2012 comes second at 5.2% but it may climb up to 19.2 by 2016. Windows OS may be the biggest climber from 5.2% in 2112 to 19.0 in 2016. The other remaining operating systems are expected to perform dismally, especially Blackberry whose market share may drop from 6.0% in 2012 to5.9%.
The research reveal that Blackberry may maintain its current market share but the big question is, will RIM really be in existence 4 years from now? Blackberry, once a major player in the mobile OS and handset environment, is currently bleeding its customers. The Canadian company may have had a change in leadership but it may be a little too late. However, the company may re-focus its efforts and come up with new products capable of taking on Android, Windows and iOS head on in the near future.
According to IDC, cellphone vendors will ship a total of 1.8 billion devices in 2012, 100 million more compared to 2011. This number will however go up to around 2.3 billion in 2016. We shouldn’t be surprised however when the number is much higher than this because the demand for smartphones and the technological advancements will push up sales.
What is your take on this report? DO you think Windows will catch up with iOS in mobile phone market share in four years? Will Android maintain its dominance for half a decade? Only time will tell.