A very interesting report came out Monday from the website theunderstatement.com. The folks at the understatement have taken the historical numbers that Google has publicly announced for Android activations per day, and come to the conclusion that if we are still at the same pace we were when Google posted their 2nd quarter results, we should be at a million activations per day by October 20th.
The understatement’s writer Michael Degusta has taken each occurrence that a Google official has publicly announced Android’s activations per day going back to April 15, 2010. Degusta makes special note of Andy Rubin’s tweet from June 28, 2011 that stated that Android was activating 500,000 per day. Then 2 weeks later, Larry Page said in the Google earnings call that Android was activating 550,000 per day.
It was also noted that Rubin said Android was growing at a rate of 4.4% week over week.
It took 29 weeks for activations per day to go from 100,000 to 300,000 – an increase of 200,000. After that, the next increase of 200,000 took… another 29 weeks. So from May 2010 til June 2011 there didn’t seem to be a compounding growth curve, rather the number seemed to increase fairly linearly at roughly 7,000 per week. Clearly that must have started increasing rapidly ahead of Rubin’s tweet in order to reach the 22,000 / 4.4% number.
So if either of these figures is correct here’s what we hope to expect. If the 4.4% figure is correct we will hit a million activations per day on or around October 20, 2011. If the 22,000 increase per week is correct we should see the million activations mark by December 6, 2011. Either way before the end of the year we could potentially say an amazing 1 million activations per day.
It’s still unclear as to what Google classifies as an activation. There are a lot of naysayers that suggest everytime someone factory data resets their device or flashes a new ROM that’s a new activation. Even if that’s the case the margin for error is not nearly as dramatic as some may think.