It seems like just over two weeks ago there was no Google+, and for good reason, because there wasn’t (at least for the masses). According to a study by Paul Allen of Ancestry.com Google+ will see 10 million users today.
Although it’s a very unorthodox study it seems that it may be close to the actual mark. We know how Google loves giving out user data (they don’t like it at all) so for now we will have to go with this. Allen’s study takes the popularity of surnames (last names) and the number of Google+ users with these surnames.
More after the break
Now according to the research study this is only including those with their real sirnames in their plus profiles. There are still users out there who are using recognized names that they’ve used in the past as their Google+ names, these people wouldn’t be counted. Folks like Droid Messenger, or my personal Google + has me listed as Kyle “Thedroidgy” S, which I changed from just “Droid Guy”
According to Allen’s study Google+ could see 20 million users by this weekend, provided they keep the invite button available. Allen describes his process to Venturebeat:
I start with US Census Bureau data about surname popularity in the U.S., and compare it to the number of Google+ users with each surname. I split the U.S. users from the non-U.S. users. By using a sample of 100-200 surnames, I am able to accurately estimate the total percentage of the U.S. population that has signed up for Google+. Then I use that number and a calculated ratio of U.S. to non-U.S. users to generate my worldwide estimates. My ratio is 1 US user for every 2.12 non-U.S. users. That ratio was calculated on July 4th through a laborious effort, and I haven’t updated it since.
As VentureBeat points out Google hasn’t released any early adoption figures for Google+ however if Allen’s analysis is accurate it’s Google+ is the fastest growing social network ever