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1 in 3 Phones in US Will Be either Android or iPhone by end of 2011

Industry analyst, Horace Dediu with the firm Asymco has made some pretty bold predictions for the smartphone space for the next year. It should be noted though that Dediu is often correct in his forecasts.

In his forecast released earlier today Dediu suggests that smartphones will make up 50% of all phones used in the United States by this time next year.  That prediction is up from the 30% figure in actual use this year and 18% same time last year.  With the current and expected offerings for Android devices in 2011 this number is not far fetched. Also with the impending launch of the iPhone on Verizon 50% of phones being smartphones is quite believable.

Deidu predicts that 1 in 3 phones used next year will be either an Android device or an iPhone. He says nothing about RIM/Blackberry. Deidu’s figures account for an increase of 80 million smartphones bringing that to over 120 million total smartphones in 2011 in the US.

A poll released earlier in the week by Nielsen showed that 58% of the survey respondents said that their next smartphone would be of the Android or iPhone variety.

While Sprint and Verizon have gone to non-unlimited plans Deidu predicts that the Unlimited plans will be the biggest revenue generator for carriers.

Source: Asymco


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  1. I think the outlook is even more bleak for Microsoft and that Android will continue its exponential growth rate. I feel that these predictions are a little on the conservative side.

  2. I am very very in the know the iPhone will be released this year and announced it CES. You are NOT incorrect though AT&Ts contract was 5 years but not from release from conception. They needed to protect themselves while developing, testing and marketing that device. Which came into fruition in 06

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